Hindsight Bias Relevance, Related Phenomena, and Theoretical Accounts Because correct recollections have a bias of zero and thus diminish the overall effect, they may contribute to the finding that hindsight bias is typically smaller in the memory than in the hypothetical design. The memory design involves repeated measurement therefore, one can and should, in addition, determine the proportion of correct recollections. If the task requires an answer on a limited scale (e.g., a dichotomous choice or an answer on a percentage scale), the measure can be simplified by more or less directly comparing the responses given in foresight and those given in hindsight. The most common measures in the memory design compare pre- and post-outcome estimates with respect to their distance to the solution (in the hypothetical design, pre-outcome and post-outcome estimates are obtained between-subjects). Hindsight bias has been found with two-alternative-forced-choice tasks, both with respect to choices and to confidence in their correctness (“Which city has more inhabitants, London or Paris?”), with confidence in the correctness of assertions (“True or false: London has more inhabitants than Paris”), with numerical questions (“How many inhabitants does London have?”), with predicting outcomes of survey questions on a percentage scale (“How many German households currently have Internet access?”), with rating the likelihoods of possible developments of a given scenario (e.g., outcomes of international conflicts, patient histories, or consequences of business decisions) or with answers on closed rating scales using a few categories (e.g., rating one’s own or someone else’s performance, school grade, satisfaction or personality traits). The following list is probably not exhaustive, but it covers most of the types that have been used. It is also very robust across type of tasks. It has been found in general-knowledge questions, in political or business developments, in predictions of elections or sport results, in medical diagnoses or in personality assessment, to name only a few. The phenomenon is very robust across content domains. Generally, hindsight bias is said to exist whenever the estimates made in hindsight lie closer to the solution than those made in foresight, and when the measure that captures this difference is significantly larger than for a control group. In the control situation, other people are asked for their answers without giving them the solution beforehand. In the hypothetical design, people receive the solution right away and are then asked to provide the answer they would have given without this knowledge. In the control situation, the same items are given to other people without providing them with the solution before they recall their original answer. In the memory design, people first give an (unbiased) answer, then receive the solution and are finally asked to recall their earlier, original answer. Two different general experimental procedures are usually employed. So to your question, yes, even the best of them commit biases.Designs, Materials, and Measures of Hindsight Bias They remembered comments that were never made, they made implicit meanings into explicit comments.etc When matched with the recordings, 90% of the specify points where omitted and half where incorrect. 2 weeks later the participants where asked to write down facts of the discussion. Tthomas, that is not a good example of hindsight bias which was the basis of mcdreamer's inquiry.Ģ British psychologist secretly recorded a discussion after a meeting of the Cambridge Psychological Society. Its a natural phenomenon like the northern lights. They nod like bobble-heads at each other and say "yeah, that makes sense". The other group is told that a long distance relationship strengths the two's love for each other. The group would agree because it sounds logical. The first group was told that a long distance relationship would weaken their bond. A psychological test was done on to groups of people about long distance relationships.
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